I'm going to try doing something a little bit different this time, as I take a look at which eight teams might end up playing in the 2008 College World Series, which begins seven weeks from Saturday. Kendall Rogers, the college baseball editor of Rivals.com, was kind enough to project his entire field of 64, which can be seen here. From those, I will project the winners of each regional and super regional, to give you what the field of 64 would look like if the tournament started today.Coral Gables Regional vs. Myrtle Beach Regional
Projected match-up: Miami (Florida) vs. Missouri
Projected winner: Miami
Why Miami will win: The Canes just keep on rolling. By taking two of three at then-No. 2 Florida State, Jim Morris' club established themselves as the top team in the country. Miami (33-5, 17-2 ACC) has won six of their last eight and and are 9-3 against teams currently ranked in the top 30.
Why Miami could lose: Aaron Crow could come out and shut down UM's offense. Crow is one of the top pitchers in the country and will be taken in the top ten of the June draft. A win in the opener for Missouri would set the Tigers up very nicely to pull the upset, but even then it is difficult to win a series at Mark Light Field, where the Canes have not lost a series all year.
Tallahassee Regional vs. Stillwater Regional
Projected match-up: Florida State vs. Oral Roberts (as much as it pains me to say that)
Projected winner: Florida State
Why Florida State will win: Despite dropping two of three at home to Miami last weekend (although FSU was rallying game three when it was ended due to a travel curfew after seven innings), the Noles (34-5, 18-3 ACC) remain one of the best clubs in the nation. Buster Posey (.483/.586/.864 with 11 home runs and 46 RBI) might very well win player of the year honors. He carries Florida State's offense, and as he goes, so go the Noles.
Why Florida State could lose: FSU is the worst fielding team in the ACC, with a fielding percentage of .955. FSU has given up 31 unearned runs so far this year, and errors were a large part of the reason why Miami took two out of three. The Noles also have a tendency to fall behind early in games and then rally later one. While this has proven effective so far, the teams in the regional and super regional round will not be as likely to relinquish the lead. Oral Roberts has wins over Arkansas, Baylor and Pepperdine this year, and the Golden Eagles will not be an easy out.
Cary Regional vs. Lincoln Regional
Projected match-up: North Carolina vs. Nebraska
Projected winner: North Carolina
Why North Carolina will win: The Tar Heels have won 11 straight games and are playing their best baseball at the right time of the year. We will know a lot more about both the Tar Heels (36-7, 16-4 ACC) and Florida State after the three-game series in Chapel Hill this weekend. Kyle Seager, who would probably win ACC player of the year if not for Buster Posey) has driven in 60 runs already this season, and he is one of five UNC starters with at least 30 RBI. The Heels score runs in bunches, and they will be tough for even Nebraska's staff to stop.
Why North Carolina could lose: The Tar Heels will not be playing at home, although they would still be the host, as renovations are taking place on their stadium. They have won the last two super regionals in their home ballpark, and they might not come out with the same emotion that they would have at home. Other than that, the Tar Heels look like a pretty sure thing.
Tempe Regional vs. College Station Regional
Projected match-up: UC Irvine vs. Texas A&M
Projected winner: Texas A&M
Why Texas A&M will win: Very quietly, the Aggies (35-7, 16-3 Big 12) have put together a stellar season. Everyone is seemingly talking about Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma State, but Texas A&M gets very little love from the national media. That will change if the Aggies win this weekend's series against Missouri (edit: Texas A&M won game one 9-8). Texas A&M has won five in a row and 18 of their last 19. The Aggies have three players (Darby Brown, Dane Carter and Jose Duran) who have at least 40 RBI, with Brown's 48 leading the way. Texas A&M makes good use of the long-ball, as they have 48 home runs as a team. The Aggies have a team ERA of 3.60, so the pitchers are solid, if not spectacular.
Why Texas A&M could lose: Texas A&M suffers from the same malady that plagues Florida State: errors. The Aggies have committed 52 errors and have allowed 42 unearned runs. All errors are important, but they are amplified on the national stage. Also, UC Irvine's Scott Gorgen is one of the top pitchers in the game, and if he could give the Anteaters a win in game one, that could set the stage for UC Irvine to win a super-regional on the road for the second consecutive year.
Columbia Regional vs. Raleigh Regional
Projected match-up: South Carolina vs. East Carolina
Projected winner: South Carolina
Why South Carolina will win: Ray Tanner's club is much more seasoned than when these two clubs met to open the year (East Carolina took two of three in late February). The Gamecocks have won 11 of their past 13 to move into the top half of the SEC. South Carolina (31-12, 11-8 SEC) gets its offensive production from four big bats: Reese Havens, Justin Smoak, James Darnell and Phil Disher. Each has at least 12 home runs (USC has 78 dingers as a team) and 42 RBI. Smoak is hitting .390, slugging .799 with 17 home runs and 49 RBI. Despite their proficiency with the long ball, South Carolina also can get on base in other ways, as the team on-base percentage is .399.
Why South Carolina could lose: The Gamecocks don't boast any really impressive series wins, although they did take two of three from both Kentucky and Mississippi, and the series loss to ECU was in Columbia. The Pirates know what it takes to win two of three in Columbia and could do it again.
Athens Regional vs. Corvallis Regional
Projected match-up: Georgia vs. Pepperdine
Projected winner: Geogria
Why Georgia will win: The Bulldogs are playing their best ball right now, as they have not lost since April 9 to Georgia Tech. Much like Texas A&M, the Bulldogs have allowed the pundits to talk about other teams and just quietly keep winning. Georgia boasts sweeps over South Carolina and LSU in the last three weeks, the Bulldogs (29-12, 15-3 SEC) are 27-8 since starting out 2-4. Gordon Beckham (.437/.548/.904) leads the offense with 20 home runs and 48 RBI. The Bulldogs get good starting pitching from Trevor Holder and Stephen Dodson (the two are a combined 11-4), but the star is the closer, Joshua Fields. Fields has 12 saves in 21 appearances and has yet to allow and earned run. He has 42 strikeouts and 11 walks in 22.1 innings. If Georgia has a lead after 8 with Fields on the mound, the game is over.
Why Georgia could lose: When the offense doesn't score, Georgia struggles. The Bulldogs are 4-9 when they score four or fewer runs. Pepperdine has a strong enough pitching staff that it could hold the Bulldogs under the magic number of four runs.
Stanford Regional vs. Fullerton Regional
Projected match-up: Long Beach State vs. Cal State Fullerton
Projected winner: Cal State Fullerton
Why Cal State Fullerton will win: The Titans are another team who are playing their best at the right time of the year. Since starting out 9-8, CSUF (25-14, 10-3 Big West) has gone 16-6. The Titans have taken two of three from UC Irvine, swept UCLA (2-game series) and split a two-game series with Arizona State, so the Dave Serrano's club will be tournament-tested. The Titans win with a lot of timely hitting and solid pitching. Having made the College World Series a year ago, the Titans know what it will take to get back to Omaha.
Why Cal State Fullerton could lose: Long Beach State had one of the most impressive resumes early on, winning a series against Rice and sweeping Wichita State, Southern Cal and UCLA. The Dirtbags have struggled in Big West play, but if they can get to the super-regional round, they will be tough for their conference rival to handle (note: these two teams play a 3-game series to end the regular season [May 23-25], so that series will show a lot about both of these teams).
Houston Regional vs. Tuscon Regional
Projected match-up: Rice vs. Arizona
Projected winner: Rice
Why Rice will win: The Owls have unfinished business in Omaha. In each of the past two seasons, Rice won its first two games at the College World Series only to lose the next two before reaching the championship series. Unlike past years, the Owls have a much greater offensive balance. There is not one offensive star, but Rice (32-11, 13-3 Conference USA) has six players who are hitting .330 or higher. Ryan Berry and Matt Langwell, who are a combined 9-3, lead the pitching staff.
Why Rice could lose: Much like Memphis in basketball, questions abound about whether Conference USA provides Rice with enough tests. This year is the first time in three years where Rice has lost more than one C-USA game. The Owls played tough competition early in the season, but they haven't played a lot of tough teams lately, although they did sweep East Carolina last weekend. This lack of competition could cost the Owls come tournament time.
There's the weekly (I hope) look at who would make it to Omaha. The CWS match-ups would be: Miami-Rice and South Carolina-Texas A&M in bracket one and Florida State-Cal State Fullerton and North Carolina-Georgia in bracket two.
Image from cwsomaha.com
Tempe Regional vs. College Station Regional
Projected match-up: UC Irvine vs. Texas A&M
Projected winner: Texas A&M
Why Texas A&M will win: Very quietly, the Aggies (35-7, 16-3 Big 12) have put together a stellar season. Everyone is seemingly talking about Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma State, but Texas A&M gets very little love from the national media. That will change if the Aggies win this weekend's series against Missouri (edit: Texas A&M won game one 9-8). Texas A&M has won five in a row and 18 of their last 19. The Aggies have three players (Darby Brown, Dane Carter and Jose Duran) who have at least 40 RBI, with Brown's 48 leading the way. Texas A&M makes good use of the long-ball, as they have 48 home runs as a team. The Aggies have a team ERA of 3.60, so the pitchers are solid, if not spectacular.
Why Texas A&M could lose: Texas A&M suffers from the same malady that plagues Florida State: errors. The Aggies have committed 52 errors and have allowed 42 unearned runs. All errors are important, but they are amplified on the national stage. Also, UC Irvine's Scott Gorgen is one of the top pitchers in the game, and if he could give the Anteaters a win in game one, that could set the stage for UC Irvine to win a super-regional on the road for the second consecutive year.
Columbia Regional vs. Raleigh Regional
Projected match-up: South Carolina vs. East Carolina
Projected winner: South Carolina
Why South Carolina will win: Ray Tanner's club is much more seasoned than when these two clubs met to open the year (East Carolina took two of three in late February). The Gamecocks have won 11 of their past 13 to move into the top half of the SEC. South Carolina (31-12, 11-8 SEC) gets its offensive production from four big bats: Reese Havens, Justin Smoak, James Darnell and Phil Disher. Each has at least 12 home runs (USC has 78 dingers as a team) and 42 RBI. Smoak is hitting .390, slugging .799 with 17 home runs and 49 RBI. Despite their proficiency with the long ball, South Carolina also can get on base in other ways, as the team on-base percentage is .399.
Why South Carolina could lose: The Gamecocks don't boast any really impressive series wins, although they did take two of three from both Kentucky and Mississippi, and the series loss to ECU was in Columbia. The Pirates know what it takes to win two of three in Columbia and could do it again.
Athens Regional vs. Corvallis Regional
Projected match-up: Georgia vs. Pepperdine
Projected winner: Geogria
Why Georgia will win: The Bulldogs are playing their best ball right now, as they have not lost since April 9 to Georgia Tech. Much like Texas A&M, the Bulldogs have allowed the pundits to talk about other teams and just quietly keep winning. Georgia boasts sweeps over South Carolina and LSU in the last three weeks, the Bulldogs (29-12, 15-3 SEC) are 27-8 since starting out 2-4. Gordon Beckham (.437/.548/.904) leads the offense with 20 home runs and 48 RBI. The Bulldogs get good starting pitching from Trevor Holder and Stephen Dodson (the two are a combined 11-4), but the star is the closer, Joshua Fields. Fields has 12 saves in 21 appearances and has yet to allow and earned run. He has 42 strikeouts and 11 walks in 22.1 innings. If Georgia has a lead after 8 with Fields on the mound, the game is over.
Why Georgia could lose: When the offense doesn't score, Georgia struggles. The Bulldogs are 4-9 when they score four or fewer runs. Pepperdine has a strong enough pitching staff that it could hold the Bulldogs under the magic number of four runs.
Stanford Regional vs. Fullerton Regional
Projected match-up: Long Beach State vs. Cal State Fullerton
Projected winner: Cal State Fullerton
Why Cal State Fullerton will win: The Titans are another team who are playing their best at the right time of the year. Since starting out 9-8, CSUF (25-14, 10-3 Big West) has gone 16-6. The Titans have taken two of three from UC Irvine, swept UCLA (2-game series) and split a two-game series with Arizona State, so the Dave Serrano's club will be tournament-tested. The Titans win with a lot of timely hitting and solid pitching. Having made the College World Series a year ago, the Titans know what it will take to get back to Omaha.
Why Cal State Fullerton could lose: Long Beach State had one of the most impressive resumes early on, winning a series against Rice and sweeping Wichita State, Southern Cal and UCLA. The Dirtbags have struggled in Big West play, but if they can get to the super-regional round, they will be tough for their conference rival to handle (note: these two teams play a 3-game series to end the regular season [May 23-25], so that series will show a lot about both of these teams).
Houston Regional vs. Tuscon Regional
Projected match-up: Rice vs. Arizona
Projected winner: Rice
Why Rice will win: The Owls have unfinished business in Omaha. In each of the past two seasons, Rice won its first two games at the College World Series only to lose the next two before reaching the championship series. Unlike past years, the Owls have a much greater offensive balance. There is not one offensive star, but Rice (32-11, 13-3 Conference USA) has six players who are hitting .330 or higher. Ryan Berry and Matt Langwell, who are a combined 9-3, lead the pitching staff.
Why Rice could lose: Much like Memphis in basketball, questions abound about whether Conference USA provides Rice with enough tests. This year is the first time in three years where Rice has lost more than one C-USA game. The Owls played tough competition early in the season, but they haven't played a lot of tough teams lately, although they did sweep East Carolina last weekend. This lack of competition could cost the Owls come tournament time.
There's the weekly (I hope) look at who would make it to Omaha. The CWS match-ups would be: Miami-Rice and South Carolina-Texas A&M in bracket one and Florida State-Cal State Fullerton and North Carolina-Georgia in bracket two.
Image from cwsomaha.com