Eight for Omaha: May 1 Edition

To give you a better idea of what the eight-team field in Omaha might look like, I will again use Rivals.com's NCAA Baseball Tournament projections as a guide for determining the field of eight. To get the complete list of Rivals' projections, click here.

Coral Gables Regional vs. Myrtle Beach Regional
Projected match-up: Miami (FL) vs. Missouri
Projected winner: Miami (FL)
Why the Canes will win: Miami continues to look like the team to beat in the 2008 season. A week after taking two of three on the road at No. 2 Florida State, the Canes (36-5, 20-2 ACC) swept a Virginia team, who earlier this season was considered a sleeper to reach the College World Series. Miami wins with a balanced offense (five players hit .360 or better and eight players have at least 27 RBI) and solid pitching. Chris Hernandez has become one of the top Friday starters in the ACC (if not the country) with a 7-0 mark, a 2.77 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 65 innings. This formula has lifted Miami to the top of the ACC standings, and I see no reason why it wouldn't get Jim Morris' squad to Omaha.
Why Missouri could win: Aaron Crow. Despite the fact that the Tigers have lost six of their last seven games, Missouri still has one of the top five pitchers in the country in Crow. Crow boasts a 9-0 mark with a 2.80 ERA and 84 strikeouts (compared to 20 walks) in 70.2 innings. In addition to Crow, Ian Berger and Kyle Gibson (Missouri's other two super-regional starters) both boast ERA's under 4.00. Miami has struggled (slightly) against really good pitching, and Missouri certainly has plenty of that. The first game pairing of Hernandez and Crow would be well worth the price of admission.

Tallahassee Regional vs. Columbia Regional
Projected match-up: Florida State vs. South Carolina
Projected winner: Florida State
Why the Seminoles will win: The Seminoles (37-7, 19-5 ACC) have lost back-to-back ACC series (to No. 1 Miami and No. 3 North Carolina), but FSU's body of work still suggests that Mike Martin's club should make it back to Omaha for the first time since 2000. FSU wins with offense. All nine Seminole starters have a batting average of at least .300, and FSU has outscored its opponents 408-203. Buster Posey (whom I have raved about in previous posts) continues to lead the way and make a strong case for player of the year honors. Posey (.470/.573/.848) has 13 home runs and 52 RBI. James Guinn is right behind with 12 home runs and 51 RBI. The Seminoles have a remarkable ability to get on base, with a team on-base percentage of .454. FSU has drawn 291 walks, while the pitching staff has allowed 170 free passes.
Why South Carolina could win: Justin Smoak and James Darnell. Smoak (.395/.512/.802), who is challenging Posey for player of the year, and Darnell (13 home runs and 58 RBI) have carried the USC offense. Smoak has 18 home runs (good enough for second in Division I) and 51 RBI. As these two go, so goes the South Carolina offense. The Gamecocks will be tested coming out of the SEC, but USC is just 9-8 on the road, and they more than likely will have to win a super-regional on the road.

Cary Regional vs. Lincoln Regional
Projected match-up: North Carolina vs. Nebraska
Projected winner: North Carolina
Why the Tar Heels will win: UNC enters this weekend having won 13 of their past 14 contests, including taking two of three from Florida State. Mike Fox's Tar Heels (38-8, 18-5 ACC) are an impressive 13-2 on the road, and even though they will serve as hosts for both the regional and super-regional rounds, the ability to win games on the road will serve them well throughout the tournament. Kyle Seager (.387/.460/.641) is the straw that stirs the drink of the UNC offense with eight home runs and 63 RBI. Tim Fedroff and Dustin Ackley, who are hitting .395 and .387 respectively, provide additional run support. The Tar Heels have 181 extra-base hits on the year, and only 44 of those are home runs. UNC can win without the home run, which is good because those cannot be counted on in the postseason.
Why Nebraska could win: The Cornhuskers have a couple of big road series wins, having taken two of three at Texas and at Baylor. Nebraska (33-8-1, 15-5-1 Big 12) has two stud pitchers (much like Missouri) in Johnny Dorn (5-, 2.60 ERA, 73 K) and Thad Weber (8-2, 3.75 ERA, 58 K). These two could give UNC (or anyone) fits.

Tempe Regional vs. Fullerton Regional
Projected match-up: UC Irvine vs. Cal State Fullerton
Projected winner: Cal State Fullerton
Why the Titans will win: Cal State Fullerton, winners of eight of its last 10 games, is playing as well as any team in the country right now. Dave Serrano's club struggled early on, but have now righted the ship. Cal State Fullerton (27-15, 11-4 Big West) doesn't have any numbers that suggest this team is one of the top in the country, as the Titans his just .303 as a team, have a team ERA of 4.31 and have clubbed eight fewer home runs than their opponents, but the Titans have experience. CSUF will be looking to make its third-straight trip to the CWS. Players like Josh Fellhauer and Jeff Kaplan know what it takes to get to Omaha. Also, the Titans won two of three games against UCI earlier this year, so that gives them the edge over the Anteaters. That series was on the road, and this series would probably take place at Fullerton.
Why UC Irvine could win: Pitching. Scott Gorgen (8-2, 2.07 ERA, 82 K), Bryce Stowell (5-2, 2.39 ERA, 62 K) and Daniel Bibona (6-1, 3.49 ERA, 58 K) comprise one of the best weekend rotations in college baseball. These three are capable of getting two wins from any team in the nation. Gorgen was shelled in the earlier match-up, and I suspect he would dearly like a chance at redemption.

Houston Regional vs. Tuscon Regional
Projected match-up: Rice vs. Wichita State
Projected winner: Rice
Why the Owls will win: Rice (34-11, 15-3 C-USA) is peaking at the right time. Wayne Graham's Owls have won 14 of their last 15 games. Much like Cal State Fullerton, Rice doesn't have a team offensive statistic that is particularly impressive, although the Owls do have six players with at least 30 RBI, but the Owls know how to win. The Owls are looking to make their third-straight CWS. Rice also has a pitching staff that has a team ERA of 3.83, and has recorded more than a strikeout per inning (415 K in 406.1 innings). Defense and experience should be enough for this club.
Why Wichita State could win: Just like UCI, the Shockers have pitching. Wichita state boasts a team ERA of 3.49, with Anthony Capra (7-0, 1.85 ERA, 60 K) leading the way and Rob Musgrave (6-1, 2.69 ERA, 63 K) and Aaron Shafer (7-2, 2.96 ERA, 65 K) not far behind. These three would give any team fits.

College Station Regional vs. Stanford Regional
Projected match-up: Texas A&M vs. Long Beach State
Projected winner: Texas A&M
Why the Aggies will win: Texas A&M (38-8, 18-3 Big 12) has not lost back-to-back games in six weeks. The Aggies hit well with runners in scoring position, as four players have 40 or more RBI, led by Darby Brown's 51). Dan Carter is batting .413 with 50 driven in, and Luke Anders has 11 home runs and 40 RBI. Travis Starling is one of the premiere closers in the college game, with eight saves, a 2.30 ERA and 33 strikeouts and 10 walks in 31.1 innings. Texas A&M has a team ERA of 3.67.
Why Long Beach State could win: After struggling in the early part of Big West play, the Dirtbags have righted the ship with back-to-back conference sweeps. LBSU has an impressive collection of wins, having taken series from Rice, Wichita State, USC and UCLA. This team will be tested come tournament-time.

Stillwater Regional vs. Corvallis Regional
Projected match-up: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State
Projected winner: Oklahoma State
Why the Cowboys will win: Oklahoma State is playing as well as any team in the Big 12 right now, having gone 14-3 in April. The Cowboys (32-11, 14-7 Big 12) have tremendous balance on offense, as nine players have at least 19 RBI. Jordy Mercer is one of three Cowboys with at least 40 RBI. Mercer leads the team with 45 runs driven in. Mercer also has seven saves and a 3.38 ERA as OSU's closer. Andrew Oliver leads the starters with a 4-2 mark and a 2.19 ERA. He has 67 strikeouts in 70 innings of work. OSU has a team ERA of 3.79 and a team batting average of .323, and an on-base percentage of .403.
Why Oregon State could win: If any team knows what it takes to have post-season success, it is the two-time defending national champions. The Beavers are just 20-16 overall and 8-7 in the Pac-10, but back-to-back series wins over Arizona and Arizona State have given Pat casey's club the confidence it needs to make another run at a national title. Mike Stutes and Jorge Reyes, who pitched the team to the national championship last year, have struggled so far this year. Stutes is 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA, while Reyes is 3-2 with a 6.60 ERA. They were lights out in last year's run, and they will have to be awesome for the Beavers to get back to Omaha for the fourth-straight year.

Athens Regional vs. Raleigh Regional
Projected match-up: Georgia vs. East Carolina
Projected winner: Georgia
Why the Bulldogs will win: Before dropping two of three to Florida last weekend, the Bulldogs had not lost a three-game series since dropping two of three to Oregon State in the first weekend of March. Georgia (29-14, 15-5 SEC) hits just .297 as a team, but Gordon Beckham leads the way. Beckham (.427/.538/.883) has an NCAA-best 20 home runs and has driven in 48. Joshua Fields is the top closer in the country. He has a 0.00 ERA and has recorded 12 saves. Fields has 42 strikeouts and 11 walks in 22.1 innings. If he comes in with a lead, the game is over.
Why East Carolina could win: Aside from Beckham, Georgia's offensive statistics aren't overly impressive, and ECU has two fine starters in Justin Bristow (6-2, 2.74 ERA) and Seth Maness (7-0, 2.84 ERA). If those two can be strong and limit Beckham's effectiveness, the Pirates could pull the upset.

Here are the CWS match-ups from this projection: Bracket A--Miami (FL) vs. Georgia and Cal State Fullerton vs. Rice; Bracket B--Florida State vs. Oklahoma State and North Carolina vs. Texas A&M.

Image from cwsomaha.com